North London Derby Simulation

I have been playing around with a simulation tool* and thought that it would be fun to run this weekend's North London Derby through the model and see what the results look like.

Unsurprisingly Tottenham are the favorites in this match but maybe not by as much as I would have expected given the form of both teams and their place in the table.

The biggest factor is that Tottenham are really over performing their underlying stats this season and I have built the simulation based on those underlying stats. 

On the goals scored front, you should expect them in this match, with a 0-0 draw showing up in just 5% of simulations. The most common scoreline is a 1-1 draw that wouldn't really help either team accomplish their season goals so if it that is the scoreline toward the end I expect both teams would throw everything looking for a second.

*This model has not been tested at all for accuracy on past matches. It uses this seasons stats (for and allowed) for danger zone shots, wide box shots, and shots outside the box, along with the number of these that might be headers and big chances. It then takes this data and uses a randomizer (because soccer is crazy Y'all) to produce the number and mix of shots for each team for each of the simulations. The simulation then uses a random number to simulate if a goal is scored or not for each shot. The simulation is run 10,000 times.

Premier League Per 90 Shot Stats

I have added Minutes Played to my Premier League database for this season which has allowed me to create per 90 stats which was one of my goals to get added this year.

You can see the full leader board and play around with some filters on the Tableau page.

I am slowly going back and getting the minutes played data for the other European leagues and I hope to have that done before the year is out.

Stats in the above are Current Through 4-27-17 games.

Manchester Derby xG and Stats

Well that was a bit of a boring match, I watched it and pulled the stats so I might as well post them because everyone loves fresh content.

Not a ton to say on this, Manchester United wanted a draw when the game started and really wanted a draw after the red card. It's kind of crazy with them fighting for a Champions League spot that they would be so conservative.

Running xG:

Stats:

Manchester City
Danger Zone	Wide Box	Outside Box	xG	SoT xG	Big Chance
7	1	11	1.43	0.90	1
Manchester United
Danger Zone	Wide Box	Outside Box	xG	SoT xG	Big Chance
2	0	1	0.55	0.26	1

Sergio Aguero was very wasteful with his chances in this game, I have him at 1.0 of City's 1.43 xG all by him self on 9 shots, but he put just 2 on target and his shot on target xG (a different model which I should probably detail at a latter time) was just 0.36.

I wish I was further along on my projection model so I could give some sort of estimate to how this result changes top 4 chances but I am a just learning to do more than basic coding and working on that model is probably a project that will be done over the summer.

Premier League Shot Quality vs Quantity through games played as of 4/26/17

Updated through games played as of 4/26/17:

Upper Right Quadrant: Lots of shots and good quality shots.

Lower Right Quadrant: Lots of shots but not very good quality.

Upper Left Quadrant: Not many shots but they are at least good quality shots.

Lower Right Quadrant: Not many shots and not very good quality shots. If you are here you are likely battling relegation.

Big 5 Leagues xG Leaderboard

Updated Through games played as of 4/10/17