Premier League Week 4 Projections

After a long international break it is time to get back to club football. As an Arsenal fan and American it has been a pretty crappy couple of weeks with the results but according to the odds it looks like things should hopefully get better.

Without any further rambling here are the odds for week 4 of the Premier League:

After several weeks with lots of heavy favorites, this week only Arsenal breaks the 50% odds barrier, As a pessimist this also likely means that of the big teams Arsenal will have their result go against them.

The Manchester City vs Liverpool match up looks really good and even with a 4:30 am kick off I will probably still do my best to wake up to watch it. I have City as the favorite but with Liverpool's track record and how they just dominated Arsenal it could definitely be closer than the odds suggest.

A new thing that I tweeted out this week is the relative strength rankings for each team that feeds into these projections.

Something New: Team strength rankings for the Premier League based on the data that feeds into my simulation model. pic.twitter.com/KIIQniLWog

— Scott Willis (@oh_that_crab) September 6, 2017

This week we have a 1 vs 3 match up and a 4 vs 7 match up which might end up as one of the better weekends for top teams going against each other.

On the title projection front, things have narrowed down to a few favorites with the rest of the big teams falling back:

Click to Enlarge

Manchester City is still the title favorite but Manchester United and Liverpool have both moved to over 20% for the title odds.* Arsenal's season might be collapsing but I still have them as the 4th highest title odds so maybe things aren't as bad as it seems after two losses.

Another new thing I tweeted out today was the team performance compared to the expected points based on odds and based on expected goals:

Expected Points table for the Premier League

Huddersfield Town have really over performed to start the season. pic.twitter.com/iuBR1PrB9x

— Scott Willis (@oh_that_crab) August 30, 2017

This is pretty interesting, I wouldn't expect Huddersfield to keep up this performance but the points that they have already banked are very valuable and can't be take away. Also even with the only perfect record, Manchester United haven't over performed by a crazy amount, Jose might be doing his second year magic.
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This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is the property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.

*Note: If teams tie on points this assigns both to that position, I have not added a goal differential to break ties. Here is a further explanation for how these projections work.