5 Highest Quality Chances from Premier League Week 3

A little slow getting this out this week but hey it's an international break and we are all kind of off our regular schedule.

Arsenal fans should probably avoid this week with the amount of shambolic defending that will be featured.

5) Harry Kane vs Burnley

Shot from feet in the center of the box, regular assisted shot, classified as a big chance: 0.40 xG.

Harry Kane just doesn't score in August.

4) Daniel Sturridge vs Arsenal

Shot from head from very close  range, assisted by a cross, classified as a big chance: 0.44 xG

That's about as wide open a header you will get. Sturridge did not miss his chance.

3) Mohamed Salah vs Arsenal

Shot from feet from very close range, following a cross, classified as a big chance: 0.54 xG

This is a really pretty movement from Liverpool to carve open Arsenal, Petr Cech makes a great save to deny a goal. 

2) Dele Alli vs Burnley

Shot from feet from very close range, following a corner, classified as a big chance: 0.76 xG

1) Mohamed Salah vs Arsenal 

Shot from feet from the center of the box, following a fast break, classified as a big chance: 0.77 xG

Not the best corner from Arsenal, a great one man fast break from Salah.

Premier League Season Simulation

I am not one to write code.

I work with people who do that and keep the hell away from that because I will break things. Given that I decided to write some very bad VBA code that simulates the rest of the Premier League Season.

It is based on the other simulations I have run and posted here and like those it is untested for accuracy.

Here is what I got for the rest of the season:

Click to make bigger

According to my model the title is all but decided for Chelsea after Tottenham lost on Firday. Even with Arsenal winning Sunday they are still way outside the top four spots.

Man City is in the best spot for top four at 91%, Liverpool is next at 65% followed by Manchester United at 59%.

Premier League Top 6 Stats vs the Top 6

One of the things that has become apparent this season is that the top 6 (really top 5 but I will be nice and include Arsenal in this discussion) teams are significantly better than the rest of the league this year and the results against each other have been what is driving the places in the table.

Given that, I thought that it would be interesting to pull the stats from the database I have been working on all season and compare how the teams have fared against each other:

Offense vs other Top 6 Teams
	xG		SoT xG		Big Chances		Danger Zone		Shots
Team	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank
Chelsea	1.10	3	1.16	3	1.45	3	3.73	7	9.00	7
Tottenham Hotspur	1.02	4	0.90	10	1.22	5	3.11	13	10.78	4
Liverpool	1.26	2	1.48	1	1.60	2	5.40	2	12.10	2
Manchester City	1.52	1	1.24	2	2.18	1	5.45	1	13.36	1
Manchester United	0.86	7	0.82	9	0.86	11	4.14	4	11.57	3
Arsenal	0.83	8	1.12	12	1.00	6	3.78	6	9.33	6
Defense vs other Top 6 Teams
	xG		SoT xG		Big Chances		Danger Zone		Shots
Team	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank	Per Game	Rank
Chelsea	0.79	3	0.75	2	0.88	3	3.03	1	8.61	3
Tottenham Hotspur	0.86	4	0.90	4	0.94	5	3.56	5	8.88	4
Liverpool	0.95	5	1.07	8	1.31	9	3.37	4	8.00	1
Manchester City	0.75	2	0.82	3	0.79	2	3.03	1	8.09	2
Manchester United	0.73	1	0.71	1	0.65	1	3.18	3	9.06	5
Arsenal	1.11	8	1.17	9	1.33	10	4.64	8	10.91	6

I was a little surprised but based on the stats Manchester City have the best record thus far against the other big teams. Chelsea have been second best followed very closely by Liverpool.

Manchester United are the fourth best team, with a very good defense against the the big teams (I would rank them second behind City) but that has come at the expense of producing offense or watchable matches.

A bit surprisingly Tottenham are the fifth best team, their defense is good and not far off the other teams but on offense I still think that they are way over performing their stats. Maybe they really are an awesome long range shooting team and that they can turn high volume of low quality chances into goals and wins on a regular basis I just think that betting on it to continue next season would be a risky proposition.

Lastly is poor old Arsenal. They don't have a stat where they rank better than sixth at against the top teams. They are the worst team on offense and the worst team in defense. There really isn't anything else that can be said about this.