I am doing a bit of change of pace post today away from stats to look more at Arsenal. In particular there poor squad management and the coming squad rebuilding job.
Here is a look at the current Arsenal Squad and the contract lengths(according to
transfermarkt)
I have shown the length of each players deal and the age that they will be in that season. I have also highlighted the peak years (24-28) green and put players over 30 in red.
Arsenal have six senior players out of contract at the end of the season (and it would have been 7 with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain getting sold yesterday). The running down of contracts for Per Mertesaker and Santi Carzorla make a certain amount of sense. For the rest it is absolutely stupid to hold on to a player this late with no chance of getting a return for them.
This situation is bad but what is worse is that next season a further ten players will be in their last season.
Arsenal are going to be in an even more desperate spot next summer. It will have teams circling looking to pick off our best player plus the team will be further weakened with our two major stars in Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil gone(they aren't extending). Further making things challenging Arsenal are likely to be sitting outside the top four again (52% chance of 5th or worse according to my last simulation) and without champions league football to attract players. Oh and their manager will be in the last year of his contract with questions on the long term direction of the club in question.
A couple of those guys with two years to go on their contracts, like Petr Cech and Nacho Monreal are still solid
contributors that would not bring a return in the market so it makes
financial sense to keep them around but not extend their contract but these are the exceptions. The
other guys above with two years left? Yeah decisions should have been made on them
last season whether they had a future or not at the club and moved on
while they had good market value.
Well run teams make decisions on these players at this point. If you decide they aren't in the long term plans you can still extract value in the transfer market. If you decide to extend the allure of running down the contract to enter free agency is still three years away so that is a less appealing option.
The other major issue for Arsenal is that for all the attacking talent in the team, they are seriously short in players with promise who are pre-peak or just entering their peak ages to take over for older players.
Beyond Alex Iwobi who is near the first team that looks like they could be a starting player. Sure Reiss Nelson looks promising but he is 17 and doesn't have much first team experience but could get it this year but beyond that? Not much.
Let's play director of football and go through the players with two years left and take a look at them.
David Ospina: He is clearly the second choice and not the ideal long term solution to Arsenal's goal keeping question. 29 this season and two years on his deal. Ideally he would have been sold last season but definitely should have gone this summer. His wages as a starting goal keeper for an international team are probably fairly high for a guy who will start in low importance cup games.
Matt Macey: I have no real opinion on his quality but as the third keeper he is probably on a low wage. Probably behind Emi Martinez in the pecking order. Maybe sell but not really a concern as the third keeper.
Nacho Monreal: A solid player still but not a guy that I want extended. He gets picked out to be exploited by high quality wingers not a convincing center back. He can do a passable job at both positions still against average opponents and wouldn't return much of a transfer fee. Keep for depth.
Mathieu Debuchy: Replaced by Hector Bellerin, Arsenal have been trying to offload him for a the last couple years without success. Really should explore doing an NBA style buy out for him just to get him away from the club.
Aaron Ramsey: A good player who suffers from injury issues and not really fitting into the system. If he is going to stay you probably need to build around him to maximize his talents if you don't want to do that he arguably makes the team weaker when he abandons the midfield to play as a second striker too often. Arsenal should have made the decision on him last year to sign or extend. With the window over he is going to stick around and be in the same position Ozil, Alexis and Chamberlain were in. I probably would have extended him, switched to a 4-3-3, sold Ozil and brought in more midfield depth and let him do his charging runs but with more cover behind him.
Theo Walcott: Fine player, doesn't fit with how Arsenal play. Sell him as he is running down the contract and getting past the peak years. Probably should have left last year to maximize return and allow for money to be re-invested in a younger replacement.
Oliver Giroud: The guy scores goals and has pretty flicks and layoffs but isn't a starter. Teams were offering transfers in the 30 million range for him and Arsenal should have been ruthless and let him go.
Danny Welbeck: Does everything well expect finish moves to produce goals. However that is important as a striker. With this is clearly a rotation option, I like him and think that he is someone to keep around. The age profile is still good and I would have looked to try to see if his contract could be extended a couple years.
Chuba Akpom: Not rated by the manager. Sell.
After that exercise Arsenal moved on at least four players and bought one out to clear out space on the roster. It also freed up £250,000 £300,000 a week in salaries plus some transfer funds to go to replacements and to allow for money to go to extensions.
Doing this exercise helps the team to clear out players who don't have a clear future, it helps to avoid the issues that Arsenal currently have with the
Premier League FFP rules. With Arsenal bumping into the top of the new soft cap in the Premier League it is even more important to maximize the output that you get for the salaries that you pay your squad. In this kind of a situation having a lot of good squad players kills long term roster flexibility. This is also an indictment of Arsenal's commercial department failing to keep up allow for more salary flexibility.
Young players are rejecting Arsenal. The current players plus management have backed Arsenal into a corner with an aging squad with little resale value and contracts running down. There doesn't seem to be a plan for next year let alone one for three or four years down the road.
Things are likely to get worse and it could take years for Arsenal to get out of this whole. We can all hope that this doesn't permanently knock Arsenal down from the top tier of the Premier League.
